How did Markets Behave Previous Data Releases?
- STEP 1
I use the website Trading Economics to see the previous decision release data, focusing on the actual decision and the Forecast and Consensus. - STEP 2
I look at the previous rate decision and take into consideration if the decision was in forecast or above, this will be used in conjunction of the next step. - STEP 3
I then use my charting package to navigate back to the previous data release and see the price action after the release. - STEP 4
I focus on the first 10 minutes after the data release and note down the range and direction of the first 5,10,15 minute bar. - STEP 5
I then a wait the rate decision using my economic calendar and look back at previous data release charts and anticipate the direction of the market.
IMPORTANT: The market reaction on the charts after the data decision DO NOT always relate to the previous charts, BUT it gives me a starting point to my trading ideas.
| DATE | New Rate | Rate Decision | Forecast | RESULT |
| 1th May 2023 | 4.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | Expected – Inline |
May Rate – AS EXPECTED
When awaiting the June Rate Decision I look at what happened prior when the Rate Decision was AS EXPECTED, which is the May market reaction.
What Actually Happened June Rate Decision
| DATE | New Rate | Rate Decision | Forecast | RESULT |
| 22nd June 2023 | 5.00% | 0.50% | 0.25% | Above Expected |
June Rate – ABOVE EXPECTED
| DATE | New Rate | Rate Decision | Forecast | RESULT |
| 2nd Feb 2023 | 4.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | Expected – Inline |
February Rate – AS EXPECTED
When awaiting the March Rate Decision I look at what happened prior when the Rate Decision was AS EXPECTED, which is the February market reaction.
BOE Rate Decision March 2023 – ACTUAL Reaction
All Market Reaction in one image
